>Julia Gillard’s freakish political contortion, the likes of which have probably never before been seen in Australian politics, of breaking an election promise to not introduce a carbon tax, bowing to the radical Greens and then introducing a carbon tax can have no other outcome than increase the size of the Australian deficit and reduce employment.
Let’s assume that the amount raised from power companies by the carbon tax each year is $10 billion.
There are a number of groups that will be especially hurt by an increase in power prices – those at the low end of the income spectrum, trade exposed industries whose position against overseas competition will be damaged and small business, which seems to be a forgotten factor in the conversation so far.
It’s clear that the government can’t compensate all groups affected so let’s assume that they distribute the money to low income earners. Note that they are on record as saying that the money will not simply go into Treasury coffers so let’s also assume that it joins the short list of promises kept by this government since being elected in 2007.
The tax is introduced in 2011 and low income workers rejoice as they see the effects in their bank balances. They then feel the pain when they get their utilities bills but, being conscientious with their money and in no way tempted to buy more grog or smokes or stick it in the pokies or back something to beat Black Caviar*, they pay what they owe. So there’s no impact on them.
Power companies now have an incentive to reduce the amount of CO2 they produce, which is the whole point of the exercise and so they invest in clean technologies that have the effect of reducing CO2 emissions to zero thus fulfilling the government’s ambition.
Can you see the problem?
At this point the government will raise no money at all from taxing so-called ‘carbon pollution’, the cost of power will not be reduced due the investment made by power companies that needs to be paid for meaning that low income households will still need financial support to meet their utilities bills.
So the government now has a $10 billion hole in its budget. Is it going to fill the void by raising taxes or by increasing the deficit? Either way, the impact on employment is negative.
And while all that has been going on our trade exposed industries have been shedding jobs at a terrific rate to countries that are not bound by the onanistic impulses of the climate brigade.
So let’s give all of the money to trade exposed industries instead of low income workers.
The government gets stuck in the same cycle. When the power companies clean up their act the government will need to maintain support for trade exposed industries otherwise there’ll be a massive loss of jobs in a short time frame to overseas competitors. Not a palatable outcome for any politician.
And all the while small business is getting hammered and is shedding jobs.
So here’s Labor’s dirty, little secret. I’m going to shout it at you so that you can take it in.
Labor’s carbon tax CAN ONLY WORK IF POWER COMPANIES NEVER REDUCE THEIR CO2 OUTPUT.
The government knows this, of course, which is why it’s just a great, big, redistributionist scam but it also knows that its allies in the mainstream media won’t point it out to the voting public any time soon.
The result will be that the tax will be in place before an emissions trading scheme is introduced, which the government expects will continue to provide the revenue it needs.
And bad luck to the people who lose their jobs because of it.
* I don’t live in this world, either, but the good folk who create government budgets surely must.
>Australia’s Human Rights Commission, an unneeded organisation if ever there was one, has released a report saying that there’s a general fear of religion in the community.
By way of example they use only Islam to make their point, as outlined below in this piece from The Australian:
THERE’S a pressing need to use education to reduce ignorance and fear about religions in Australia, a new report says
It said there is a current anti-Muslim discourse that suggests entrenched hostility which is often related to overseas events.
The report, entitled Freedom of Religion in the 21st Century, was prepared for the Australian Human Rights Commission.
The researchers said some Christians fear the introduction of sharia law in Australia and believe that governments appease Muslim communities by giving Islam preferential treatment.
Some people told the researchers that evangelical Christians demonise Muslims partly because of “high levels of ignorance by churches about Islam”.
It also said some Muslim children see themselves as outsiders because they see their religion vilified at every turn.
“They see how they are viewed as Muslims, which in turn affects how they view themselves,” the report said.
The report’s conclusion said the commission needs to “foster a discussion about the place of religious rights along side other rights”.
It said the commission must allow “for the view to be heard that religious rights are absolute, and then to allow that view to be tempered by other views”.
It urges religious leaders to play a key role in overcoming ignorance about religion in the community.
There are currently only three groups who have issues with religion:
1. Anyone with half a brain who understands that more than 90% of the world’s terrorist attacks (excluding in Iraq and Afghanistan) are carried out in the name of one religion – Islam – in order to promote Sharia and create a new Ummah and is wary of all of those who say that it’s a small minority that carry out the attacks and they don’t represent the religion.
2. Secular fanatics who worship at the feet of Richard Dawkins’ and Christopher Hitchens’ post modern atheism that disguise their contempt for Christianity and Judeo-Christian values under the umbrella of rejecting religion completely.
3. The left and its rank anti-Semitism disguised as opposition to Israel.
When the Australian Human Rights Commission says there’s a fear of religion then do they include Buddhists? Sikhs? Hindus?
Why would we be afraid of the Mormons? Are they going to be sickeningly nice to us until we’re dead?
What about the Rastafarians? Afraid of reggae music and a little weed?
And why didn’t they include being a Green as a religion? They’re hardly any different to animists, if you ask me.
The reason that people in Australia are afraid, though ‘concerned’ is probably a better description, of Islam is two-fold:
1. Most terror attacks in the world are carried out in its name (as outlined above) and every, single person indicted for planning terrorist attacks in Australia has been Muslim; and
2. People understand that Sharia is a barbaric, restrictive, misogynistic, homophobic relic that controls people’s lives and has no place in a modern, progressive society.
Why am I not surprised that the folk at the Australian Human Rights Commission think that genuine and legitimate concern about the practices of one group of people, Muslims, is the same as a blanket fear of religion?
>Can you spot the inconsistency between the two short descriptions below?
I’ll give you some time before posting the answer.
>If there’s been a more banal political slogan in Australian history than Labor’s “moving forward” then please let me know.
The first poll published after the calling of the August 21 election comes from Galaxy and shows that the government holds on to its 52-48 lead.
I commented recently that before the last election, which Labor won with a 53-47 margin, their Betfair odds were $1.31.
The current odds are as follows:
The odds support the 52-48 poll so, unless one side or the other puts their foot in it big time, then we’ve got another three years of Labor government to look forward to. How much more debt will they be able to pile onto our kids? It’s remarkable that the modern, “progressive” left has no care for the financial health of the economies of which they’re supposed to be custodians.
>This one is doing the rounds of the Internet and highlights the absolute disaster that our Labor government has inflicted upon the poor, old taxpayer for the next umpteen years.
Rarely has a government promised so much, spent so much, said so much, and launched so many nationwide programs, and delivered so little value for money and expectation. Two years of Kevin Rudd has produced 20 years of debt, and most of it cannot be blamed on the global financial crisis. This alphabet soup is self-inflicted.
Asylum seekers. Unless the government can show otherwise, it appears that about 98 per cent of asylum-seekers are getting Australian residency. In contrast, the latest figures from the United Nations refugee agency show most asylum applications worldwide are rejected. The bulging Christmas Island detention centre has become a grossly expensive sham and a mockery of a core election promise.
Beijing. Supposedly Rudd’s strong point, the relationship with China deteriorated badly last year after a series of serious missteps with Beijing.
Computers in schools. A million computers promised to schools, one for every student. This turned out to be much harder than it sounded.
Debt and deficit. The Rudd government inherited a massive $90 billion financial firewall when it came to office, via a federal budget surplus, the Future Fund and two infrastructure funds. In two years the budget has gone from $20 billion in surplus to $58 billion in deficit. Net federal debt has gone from zero to a projection of between $130 billion and $180 billion. It took the previous government 10 years to dismantle the $96 billion debt mountain that it inherited. It took Rudd one year to build it back up again.
ETS. The Copenhagen climate conference was a disaster. Rudd’s emissions trading scheme is abstract, complex, expensive and polls show about 80 per cent of Australians do not understand or trust it. A T-shirt produced by Newcastle steelworkers distils the political problem: “Rudd’s ETS: Higher Prices. Lost Jobs. 0.001 degrees cooler.”
Fuelwatch. Big promise, empty outcome.
India disaster. Last year Australia degraded relations with the two emerging Asian superpowers.
Juvenile justice. The plight of young Aborigines is worse than ever, with ideology trumping pragmatism. Children are shipped off to violent foster families while government exhibits a mesmerised inertia in the face of pockets of endemic violence.
Kaiser. The aptly named Mike Kaiser, former ALP Queensland state secretary and state MP, became the umpteenth poster boy for the Labor patronage machine this month by landing a $450,000-a-year lobbying job with the national broadband network. The job was not advertised.
League tables. The government’s one-size-fits-all league tables for schools, plagued by glitches and misleading data, is another centralised scheme that serves as a substitute for tackling the union-imposed rigidities on teacher performance.
Migration. Permanent migration to Australia surged 550,000 during the first two years of the Rudd government, the highest two-year increase in history. This is at odds with the government’s rhetoric on reducing Australia’s carbon footprint. It was also never mentioned before the election.
National broadband network. Last year the Rudd government spent $17 million looking for a private partner to co-build the network. The process yielded nothing. The government will now build and operate the network itself at a cost of $43 billion. A money sink.
Opposition theft. The Rudd government inherited the strongest budget position and banking sector of any major Western economy, which protected Australia from the global financial crisis. The government pretends this was all its own work.
Power. The national solar power rebate is a political debacle. The GreenPower scheme has failed. The renewable energy trading certificates scheme is in disarray.
Question time. Question time has blown out by 50 per cent over its traditional running time because of long ministerial answers and incessant points of order, while the time devoted to answering real questions, rather than Dorothy Dixers, has shrunk to less than 30 per cent of question time; a blatant corruption of the process.
Roof insulation. Send in the fraud squad. A good idea gone bad. Rampant false billing and over-charging. Cowboys everywhere. People dead. Houses unsafe. Systemic overspending. A hapless bureaucracy detached from the realities of the building industry.
School spending. The $16 billion Building the Education Revolution scheme is bloated with systemic overspending and over-charging. The problems were encapsulated by a builder who told me: “My company is involved in the BER work and it involves mismanagement, overcharging, schools being railroaded into decisions not in their interests, all hidden behind a smokescreen. It is the country’s most expensive political stunt ever.” Another money sink.
Tax increases. The federal budget in May will begin to reveal the consequences of panic, hubris, overspending and waste as the government seeks to offset its profligacy with higher fees and taxes. Superannuation was just the start.
Union power. The unions, having bankrolled Labor’s election campaign in 2007, have received their payback, with an increase in union rights and powers. Union muscle-flexing is back, from the mining sector to small business. Endemic corruption, blackmail and violence in the building industry was finally curbed by the Australian Building and Construction Commission. Julia Gillard is shutting it down.
Vanity. See B, K, O, Q and U.
Whitlamesque. Spendthrift programs. Empty rhetoric. Self-congratulation. Deficit spending. Debt blowout. Two years of the Rudd government produces 20 years of debt and poses the question: worse than Whitlam?
X Y Z Generations X, Y and Z They will be stuck with the bill.
What amazes me is that Labor voters can read through this list and still manage to find positive things to say about the government such as the “Sorry” to the (non existent) Stolen Generations and, supposedly, keeping us out of recession.
All they’ve done is to ensure that we will have a weaker economy over the next couple of decades than we otherwise would have. They have guaranteed higher interest rates and higher unemployment, though the effects of those are still to hit.
China’s growth is said to be slowing. How much debt is this government going to have? $100B? $200B is probably closer.
It took 10 years to pay off Labor’s previous $100B debt. How long will it take to pay it off this time around?
The implementation of left wing policies can only lead to unwelcome, bordering on immoral, outcomes.
>Anyone on the conservative side of politics that thinks we’re a chance of winning the next Federal election is, pretty much, dreaming.
And the election will be held soonish.
Here’s the Betfair market on the election date:
Now, there’s only $700 in the pool and the reason is that nobody wants to put any money into betting against an election date that has already been decided by the government. Sportingbet has a market on the exact date of the election. August 28 is at $2.50, which is pretty short.
Supporting the government’s decision to go early is internal polling that shows they’ve got a strong, election winning lead.
That’s reflected in the Betfair market:
Prior to the last election Labor had a healthy lead in the opinion polls and the price available was only a little bit shorter than what it’s currently at, which seems to suggest similar polling numbers.
Therefore, my prediction is that the election will be on August 28 and the government will be returned with a 52-48 result.
Friday 2/7/10 UPDATE:
All of the money on the betting markets has been for an August 14 election. Sportingbet has that data at $2.10 and August 28 at $2.75 so I predict that the election will be called this weekend for one of those two dates.
>During the 2007 election a large number of ALP supporters chose to wear Kevin07 paraphernalia.
They looked like donkeys.
Now, Brand Kevin is being expunged from the ALP corporate memory. I just got on the ALP website and searched the site for “Kevin07”.
Here’s the response:
There used to be pooloads of Kevin07 information.
By comparison, I searched for “minimum wage” and got 12 responses. “Tony Abbott” returns pages and pages and pages of responses. To be fair there are still many responses to “Rudd”.
There really are no more vicious politics than when the left executes one of its own.