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>It’s all over

September 30, 2008 Leave a comment

>It’s all over.

The 2008 US Presidential race, that is.

Who would have thought that the good ship SS McCain would be sunk by a torpedo fired in 1977 by Jimmy Carter?

That’s what happened when the Carter administration initiated Community Reinvestment Act, supercharged by Clinton’s further deregulation, reached the only outcome it ever could, bringing down some of Wall Street’s biggest names along the way.


There’s a Republican in the White House and the buck stops with him, as Harry Truman would say and the American voter would agree.

As I pointed out the other day, barring a major scandal Barack Obama will be the next president of the United States.

Check out the current opinion polls and betting market.

Gallup (Obama 50-42)

Rasmussen (Obama 50-45)

Betfair

The real threat to the US lies not only in the inevitability of an Obama presidency but also in the fact that with such a sentiment sweeping the nation the Democratic Party may pick up the required number of Senate seats to be able to ram through any legislation they want.

And then we’ll really see the US economy tank.

Unfortunately, we’ll all pay the price.

(Nothing Follows)

Categories: Politics, United States

>Regulation – not Deregulation – caused financial crisis

September 28, 2008 2 comments

>The current financial ‘crisis’, which I refer to as a ‘perturbation’, was caused by compassionate policies aimed at achieving higher housing affordability for low income workers.

As the video below shows, the legislation was originally introduced in the Carter administration and had an almost immediate effect of starting the housing bubble that was eventually going to pop and nearly bring everything else down with it.

Dennis Prager has a nice line that the problems with liberal policy is that it places compassion above standards.

Here is a classic example of the sound standards of work, savings history and deposit being thrown out the window in an effort to improve people’s lives.

The video describes the result as ‘cruel’.

I wouldn’t use that term.

‘Unwise’ is a better description, though it doesn’t matter what you call it – every mortgage owner in the world is going to pay the price.

(Nothing Follows)


Categories: Economics

>Sunday night rock ‘n’ roll

September 28, 2008 Leave a comment

>Red Hot Chili Peppers are an American rock band formed in Los Angeles, California, in 1983. For most of its existence, the band has consisted of vocalist Anthony Kiedis, guitarist John Frusciante, bassist Michael “Flea” Balzary, and drummer Chad Smith. The band’s varied musical style has fused traditional rock and funk with various elements of heavy metal, punk rock and psychedelic rock.

In addition to Kiedis and Flea, the group originally featured guitarist Hillel Slovak and drummer Jack Irons. However, Slovak died of a heroin overdose in 1988, resulting in Irons resigning. Irons was replaced briefly by former Dead Kennedys drummer D. H. Peligro before the band found a permanent replacement in Smith, while Slovak was replaced by up-and-coming guitarist Frusciante. This lineup recorded the band’s fourth and fifth albums, Mother’s Milk (1989) and Blood Sugar Sex Magik (1991).

Blood Sugar Sex Magik was a critical success and sold over twelve million copies. However, Frusciante grew uncomfortable with the band’s success, leaving abruptly in 1992. Kiedis, Flea, and Smith employed Dave Navarro of Jane’s Addiction for their subsequent album, One Hot Minute (1995). However, it failed to match the critical acclaim of Blood Sugar Sex Magik and sold fewer than half the copies of its predecessor. Shortly afterwards, Navarro was fired from the band due to creative differences.

Frusciante, during his time away from the band in 1998, completed rehabilitation, rejoining the band at Flea’s request. The reunited foursome returned to the studio to record Californication (1999), which went on to sell fifteen million units worldwide, becoming their most successful album to date. It was followed three years later with By the Way (2002), which continued their success. In 2006, the group released the double album Stadium Arcadium. The band has won six Grammy Awards. They have sold over fifty million albums worldwide, have had seven singles in the Top 40 of the Billboard Hot 100 (including three singles in the Top 10), have had five #1 singles on the Mainstream Rock charts, and a record eleven #1 singles on the Modern Rock charts.

Higher Ground

Californication



Can’t Stop

(Nothing Follows)


Categories: Music

>Mr Obama, Mr President

September 26, 2008 4 comments

>There is little doubt that John McCain is the better candidate for president in 2008.

However, there’s no point listing his superiority over Barack Obama in terms of experience, competence and knowledge.

There’s no point analysing McCain’s superior ideology, founded in the greatness of the United States, with Obama’s Eurocentric ‘global citizen’ philosophy.

There’s no point reading the conservative commentators who accurately distill the issues in this election into informative and entertaining columns in order to sway people’s opinions.

There’s no point trying to work out who won the presidential debate; McCain was expected to win easily, landing a knockout blow on his inexperienced interlocutor. It didn’t happen, which only serves to strengthen Obama’s position.

There’s no point highlighting Youtube videos of Barack Obama blathering on like a man trying to win a stammering competition. The general view is that he is a terrific speaker; people don’t care that he needs a teleprompter.

There’s no point analysing the root causes of the financial market crisis and quite rightly demonstrating that the majority of the blame rests with Democrats and, especially, senior Democrats such as Barney Frank who resisted George W Bush’s and John McCain’s attempts to tighten regulations around Freddy and Fanny. There’s a Republican president and therefore he takes the blame. Remember Harry S. Truman’s aphorism – “the buck stops here”.

The current Betfair market is as follows:

$1.51 Barack Obama
$3.00 John McCain

With only six weeks until the election this is an impossible advantage to overcome barring a huge scandal from the Obama campaign.

It makes me think that the polls showing Obama with a 6-7 point lead such as the latest from Gallup are correct.

If Obama makes any mistakes then they will be papered over by a mainstream media that is so deeply in the tank for him that they need SCUBA gear. Naturally, any mistakes from the McCain/Palin team, no matter how trivial, will be blown out of all proportion in the media.

We had a similar situation here in Australia at the last federal election that saw a change of government when the media embarrassed itself with its support for now prime minister Kevin Rudd and failed in its duty to provide balanced, apolitical reporting.

Using the Realclearpolitics’ electoral map tool and having a look at how the race will end up I come up with the following as the result of the election.

I can’t see any way for John McCain to win this election. He has too much baggage to overcome.

Therefore, Barack Obama will be elected as the United States’ 44th president on November 4.

President Obama.

Get used to it.

(Nothing Follows)

Categories: Politics, United States

>What is more important in the 2008 US election?

September 26, 2008 Leave a comment

>What is more important?

The scar on John McCain’s face or the Rezko scar on Barack Obama’s reputation?

John McCain’s attempt to strengthen the oversight of Fannie and Freddy or Barack Obama’s status as second largest recipient of political donations from them?

The number of houses John McCain owns (that were purchased with Cindy’s and his own money) or the source of finance for Barack Obama’s house?

John McCain’s long history in support of free speech or the Obama campaign’s frequent attempts to use the law to shut down their political opponents?

John McCain’s ‘reform’ or Barack Obama’s ‘change’?

John McCain’s desire to see a market bail out not paid for by taxpayers or the Democratic Party leadership’s attempt to attach pork to the bill that would not only see shale oil drilling continue to be banned but give hundreds of millions of dollars to ACORN?

What is more important?

The real mother of Sarah Palin’s Down Syndrome child or Barack Obama’s friendship with terrorists Bill Ayres and Bernadine Dohrn?

Sarah Palin having Trig when he was prenatally diagnosed with Down Syndrome or Barack Obama’s support of partial birth abortion?

Sarah Palin originally being for the Bridge to Nowhere or Sarah Palin killing the Bridge to Nowhere when the full scale of the corruption became apparent to her?

Sarah Palin being a heartbeat away from the presidency or Joe Biden being an impeachment away from the presidency?

(Nothing Follows)

Categories: Politics, United States

>Fannie and Freddy caused by Democrats and will help Obama win

September 25, 2008 1 comment

>While this video is factual I do not believe that even if every voter in the country knew its contents that it would alter the outcome of the upcoming election one iota.

I think that the electorate has stopped listening. All Barack Obama has to do is run a disciplined campaign from here on in and he will win – though he might want to muzzle the embarrassment that is his VP pick until after November 4.

You can see from the betting graph that Obama has a big lead, which has increased due to recent poor economic news. Opinion polls may tell one story but money always seems to be the strongest indicator of performance.

The irony is that voters will be electing the party that caused the mess in the first place.

(Nothing Follows)

Categories: Economics, United States

>Financial market graphs back to 1950

September 23, 2008 3 comments

>

It’s interesting to see that the downturn after the Dot Com boom and September 11 was much deeper than what has happened recently.
If confidence can return to the market, backed by loan facilities supported by the government, then you’d expect things to improve.

S&P – 2 years

S&P – 5 years

S&P – from 1950

(Nothing Follows)
Categories: Economics, United States